On October 17, the Research Centre of the Internal Security Institute at the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences hosted a webinar to present the findings of its newly published report Forecast of Global Development Trends Affecting Estonia’s Internal Security 2026–2030. The event attracted close to 200 registered participants, highlighting widespread interest in Estonia’s preparedness for global risks.
The reports offers a comprehensive forward-looking analysis of the global risks that may shape Estonia’s national and internal security environment over the next five years.
As the world continues to grapple with geopolitical tensions, climate change, technological disruption, and societal shifts, Estonia — a digitally advanced yet geographically exposed state — must anticipate and adapt to an increasingly complex risk landscape. Based on expert input from 24 Estonian specialists, the report evaluates 29 global risks, ranking them by their probability and potential impact on Estonia. The top five identified threats are: cyber espionage and cyberwarfare, disinformation and information manipulation, armed conflicts between states, geo-economic confrontation, and societal polarisation.
To provide practical insights for internal security planning, the report examines these five key threat trends across four core areas of Estonia’s internal security system: border security, continuous functioning of critical infrastructure and essential services, civil protection and resilience of communities, and social security. Such multidimensional analysis helps to detail global risks into actionable internal security considerations, aligning strategic foresight with Estonia’s operational preparedness.
The report calls for a broad-based approach to public security and safety, recognizing that future crises are likely to be multidimensional and intertwined — combining cyber, economic, environmental, and geopolitical elements. Building societal resilience, improving critical thinking, and fostering strategic partnerships will be key.
The full Estonian-language report is available at https://doi.org/10.15158/ebp3-4496 and here.